Estimating the Ability of Gamblers to Detect Differences in the Payback Percentages of Reel Slot Machines: A Closer Look at the Slot Player Experience

The results of play on 60 different computer simulated reel slots challenge the widely held theory that frequent slot players are able to detect changes in a slot machine's house advantage as slight as 1 to 2%. These findings affect the formulation of critical and capital-intensive customer retention strategies and brand positioning campaigns within the gaming industry. An overwhelming majority of 10,000 virtual players were not able to reject the hypothesis of equal payback percentages after playing both a 3% game and a 12% game (i.e., a 400% increase in the house advantage). This result held across three levels of pay table variance and five levels of trials or spins. The differences in house advantages examined herein ranged from 33% to 400%, across the various 2-game comparisons. The results also fail to support those who argue or fear that frequent slot players are able to detect changes in the house advantage over time. Profits from slot operations are critical to the success of most casino resorts, making this research into the slot player experience a valuable contribution to both the literature and casino management.